Eric Traupe has been at the table in the situation room with U.S. presidents and has sat across from kings and prime ministers during his 30-plus-year career stint working for both the CIA and U.S. Marine Corps. Traupe shared his experience, leadership, and intelligence insights with dairy leaders at the 2025 International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) meeting held in January in San Antonio, Texas.
Traupe took the audience on a virtual tour around the globe, touching on geopolitical topics that could impact the industry in the short and long term.
“China is hell-bent on global domination. Keep that in mind. China’s policy on the U.S. is not going to change; Xi Jinping has surrounded himself with loyalists. Why does this matter? They are the second largest economy in the world,” Traupe relayed.
“The jousting with China is going to get worse with tariffs and is going to hurt this industry. China is of the view that they can still survive even with these tariffs. Trump believes he can sit with President Xi and get a deal renegotiated with him. The problem is that China just doesn’t deal very well. We deal in two four-year administrations; that is the longest horizon the U.S. can focus on. The Chinese are planning for 2225 and how they will be positioned. It is the way their culture functions, and we are unable to do that in a dedicated way,” he said.
Traupe explained his “boomerang” theory on tariffs and warned that whatever tariffs are sent out, some form of retaliation is coming. That could mean as much as a 50% drop in trade with China, across all goods. The silver lining, he explained, is the challenges China is facing domestically; they may eat the tariffs put on them because they need to boost trade.
Looking at the Middle East, he acknowledged that what is happening in the region is tragic and has been getting more attention than in the past, but it is not a new story. The unrest and disruption causes problems for the region overall. On the positive, he explained that the Gulf region wants to push something other than fossil fuels. “The Gulf region wants you to invest money in technology and business ecosystems. I think the Middle East North Africa region represents a potential new area for growth; there is a younger and growing population with more discretionary income. In Saudi Arabia, 68% of the population is under the age of 35,” Traupe said.
Russia and Ukraine were the next areas covered by Traupe. He discussed the conflict going on year three and the U.S. providing billions of dollars in aid. “The big thing that you need to embrace is the current administration wants to put tariffs on Russia. It is intended to push Russia and Ukraine presidents to the table to come up with a deal. The goal is they agree to terms, to end this warfare because no one is making money. The reality is this is unsustainable,” he explained.
Traupe expanded on Russia and President Vladimir Putin’s desire to return to the construct of the USSR that he grew up with. He added, “I know on pretty good authority that they have infused $820 million in 2024 to bolster domestic production of various dairy products to have self-sufficiency. One could argue that is a tough road for them long term, so they are going to have to look for other people who will sell to them. The challenge will be if they get such a domestic bolstering to their market and want to find new markets, the Russians – in some areas – might become new competitors for you.”
He closed with a firm message of focusing on home and looking into cybersecurity. “Cyber attacks are so easy these days. They are using artificial intelligence to generate a new level of sophistication in phishing scams. Take cyber security seriously,” he concluded.
