Washington Dairygrams - February 10, 2011

PRICE PROSPECTS brighten. February through December Class III futures averaged $16.39 at closing, reaching $16.58 for October. The Class III price averaged $14.41 during 2010 after being $11.36 in 2009 and $17.44 in 2008. 2010 DAIRY EXPORT VALUE, through November, up 64 percent. Mexico and Canada still largest markets. Biggest percentage gains in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Dairy import value unchanged from 2009. USDA PROJECTS 2011's Class III price to average between $14.35 and $15.15. Class IV between $14.90 and $15.80. All-Milk Price between $16.10 and $16.80. Corn forecast is $4.90 to $5.70 a bushel; soybean meal, $320 to $360. CORN CROP ESTIMATE was 12.4 billion bushels, down 5 percent from last year's record. Corn stocks down 8 percent from year ago. Soybean crop put at 3.33 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last year. Soybean stocks down 3 percent. DECEMBER MILK in U.S. up 2.5 percent from 2009. Growth slowing . . . September, +3.3; October, +3.0; and November, +2.8. U.S cow herd was 9.136 million head, highest since August 2009. We had 16,000 more cows than in November. CALIFORNIA WAS UP 2.7 percent in milk, and Wisconsin, up 0.5. Unofficially, Idaho (+4.9) will edge out New York (+4.6) to rank third in milk for 2010. DEAN FOODS' anti-trust settlement in the Northeast being challenged by Dairy Farmers of America, Dairy Marketing Services, and St. Albans co-op. Concern is that settlement terms would lower milk prices for all Northeast producers. BRIEFLY: Dairy cow slaughter in 2010 about equal to 2009, although 66,000 (15 percent) more were shipped this November and December than a year ago. Controversial FDA plan to sample milk tanks for antibiotics from farms that have shipped cattle with residues put on hold, for now. Data being released from two-year National Air Emission Monitoring Study (NAEMS) of livestock operations, including several dairies. Embezzlement of up to $1 million tied to former CEO of Bozeman's Country Classic Dairy, 50th on our co-op list last year. Twice as many ICE raids last year (2,704), including some on dairies, says Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with fines for business owners totaling $7 million. 2010 fluid milk sales, through November, down 1.4 percent from a year earlier. Organics' share up slightly to 3.3 percent. Cheese in storage still over a billion pounds, up 6 percent from year ago. Butter stocks down 38 percent.
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