While the subject of trade and tariffs saturates the media, when it comes to dairy and trade, Mexico and Canada account for nearly 40% of U.S. dairy exports. Additionally, the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) and the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) report the U.S. exports just north of one day’s production out of every six, which equates to approximately 18% of the total U.S. production being exported. Exports out of the U.S. play a significant role for the U.S. dairy industry.

“Exports are fundamental to the health of the U.S. dairy industry” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “Dairy farmers and manufacturers are counting on a swift resolution to this impasse and urge a redoubling of efforts at the negotiating table to find a workable way forward that addresses U.S. national security concerns while also preserving export flows that are vital to supporting American farmers and workers. We’re eager to focus on working with the Administration on expanding global opportunities for American dairy products in ways that build on the existing base of sales to our trading partners.”

While not as prominent as our neighboring countries, China is another important trade partner for dairy, which has imported between $500 million and $800 million worth of U.S. dairy products in recent years. Combining China with Mexico and Canada, these countries account for more than 51% of U.S. dairy exports, according to USDEC.

Despite recent historical highs, 2024 notched the third year of China’s reduced imports from the U.S. Dairy shipments from the U.S. to China fell by 9% compared to the previous year. In addition, a drop in Chinese purchasing behavior heightened competition in third markets from suppliers like New Zealand while looking to find alternative markets to China.

While China’s dairy industry continues to grow and in recent times, has out-produced demand for dairy, paired with population decline for the last three years, China remains an important trade partner for the U.S. China accounted for nearly half of U.S. whey exports in January. Additionally, there is significant room for growth in a country where dairy consumption remains well below the average compared to the rest of the world.

Overall, U.S. dairy exports nearly tripled since the early 2000s, and the United States has become the world’s third-largest dairy product exporter behind New Zealand and the European Union (EU). Continuing to build this bridge for exports is imperative for the future of the U.S. dairy industry.

“With more U.S. processing capacity online, our cheese exports are poised for even more global growth,” said Greg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “Trade has become an increasingly important outlet for farmers’ milk. It creates a promising future — and at the same time, it means the future depends on it.”