Looking at the last five years, imports are low relative to domestic production, ranging from 0.05% for milk powders to 10% for whey protein concentrates. Exports range from a low of 4% of domestic sales for American-style cheeses and butter to a high of twice or more of the domestic market for milk and whey concentrate powders.
Milk powders and non-American style cheeses enjoy a consistent upward trend in net exports. American-style cheeses and whey powders trended upward but have slowed their net export growth or plateaued in the last decade. Butter trade was more or less a draw in the first decade or so of open markets, but we are tilting toward becoming a net importer, albeit at a minimal level. Other dairy products, such as beverage milk, yogurt, and ice cream, are difficult to trade beyond Mexico and Canada due to their bulk or perishability.
Relative to the components in all U.S. production, our exports of all skim solids in 2024 equaled about 19% of our domestic production, while our net exports of all milkfat equaled about 1%.
What would U.S. prices look like if we had managed to continue our closed-door policies that defined much of the 20th century? In short, skim solids values would have to decline, and milkfat or cream-heavy products would have to increase to get total solids in balance in a domestic market that loves cream-heavy products, but skim solids not so much. The net-net would be lower farm prices and less total production, which also would have meant even more farm exits. Recent increases in beverage milk consumption, even as whole milk, actually help boost skim solids sales relative to milkfat.
For a detailed look at these trends, see the July 2025 Hoard’s Dairyman Milk Check Outlook.
Year | American style cheeses | Other style cheeses | Butter | |||
Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | |
1995-99 | 1.16% | 0.60% | 6.20% | 1.15% | 1.24% | 1.17% |
2010-14 | 0.48% | 9.27% | 3.61% | 6.61% | 0.78% | 7.27% |
2020-24 | 0.50% | 3.72% | 3.43% | 9.52% | 5.47% | 3.64% |
Year | Nonfat dry milk | Dry whey | Whey protein concentrates | |||
Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | Imports vs. production | Exports vs domestic use | |
1995-99 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 25.47% | 2.51% | 8.44% |
2010-14 | 0.13% | 102.77% | 0.00% | 118.09% | 6.59% | 102.56% |
2020-24 | 0.05% | 227.15% | 0.13% | 97.57% | 9.86% | 174.55% |
