by Amanda Smith, Associate Editor
"Last year was a good year for producers. Milk prices were up, and feed costs dropped the second half of the year," noted Bob Cropp, professor emeritus at UW-Madison, as he addressed Wisconsin Dairy Field Representatives Conference attendees.
In addition, Cropp noted that cow numbers and milk per cow were up only slightly and that there was no milk production growth in November or December. And, per usual, the West saw tighter margins than the Midwest and Northeast this past year. California averaged $17.71 for a January to September Class III price, while Wisconsin came in at $19.70.
Even though it was a nice reflection on the year past, what everyone was truly interested in were Cropp's 2014 predictions. Over 2014, he predicts a Class III average of $18.75 with a U.S. All-Milk price forecast of $20.75.
Total world milk production is also expected to grow at least 2 percent, weather permitting, with each of the five major exporters gaining production ground. It is anticipated that world demand will absorb production gains, especially through China and the rest of Asia.
Feed costs, Cropp added, will likely be lower for most of the year leading producers to feed for higher milk per cow. This effect could be dampened with the lower quality forages that were produced last year. Coupled with this, California is experiencing its worst drought in 130 years.
Improved margins should lead to a gain in cow numbers and improved milk per cow. Tight hay and forage supplies could dampen this gain, too.
In the U.S., milk per cow is estimated at 22,133 pounds, up 1.8 to 2 percent. Total production would range between 204.8 billion to 205 billion.
