Two of the world’s major dairy milk sheds are wrestling with ramifications from disease outbreaks. In North America, more specifically the United States, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has impacted dairy operations across 14 states. Meanwhile in Europe, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany are among the major milksheds grappling with bluetongue. While neither disease is fatal to dairy cattle, they are causing lower milk production in some major dairy regions.
Bluetongue is a viral disease spread by biting insects. In Europe, biting midges are the vector transmitting bluetongue from animal to animal. The disease poses no risk to humans; however, ruminant livestock are negatively impacted by it. Infected dairy cows can suffer from health and fertility issues that may even cause the loss of a pregnancy. Infected cows experience lower milk production by roughly 2 pounds per cow per day for nine to 10 weeks, according to USDA sources. In severe cases, milk production can be impacted at much higher levels.
Like HPAI’s deadly impact on poultry, the same holds true for sheep when infected by bluetongue. After being at bay for 14 years, bluetongue reappeared in the Netherlands in September 2023. That year, over 51,000 sheep died from bluetongue.
A vaccination program ensued in April 2024 with an estimated 90% to 95% of the sheep being vaccinated by June. Outside of vaccination, the only way to slow or potentially prevent the disease is by lowering the presence of biting midges. Like mosquitoes, midges need standing water in which eggs are laid and hatch.
There are 29 known bluetongue (BTV) variants. In August 2006, the BTV-8 strain spread across Europe, and it took two full years before a vaccine brought the disease under control. This time around, a new BTV-3 variant is wreaking havoc in the European countryside. This strain of the virus has caused significantly higher mortality rates in sheep than its 2006 cousin.
Three major impact zones
While the disease has been reported in eight European countries, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany have been impacted far more than Luxembourg, France, Denmark, Great Britain, and Norway. Germany leads the 27 countries in the European Union for milk production and accounts for about 22% of all milk flow. The Netherlands ranks fifth, and Belgium is ninth. Ireland, another major milk producer, has seen dairy farmers calling for a halt on all imported cattle to protect their herds against the risk of bluetongue disease. At the moment, Ireland has no reported cases of bluetongue.
The map below shows how bluetongue is spreading through Germany, with the blue dots representing beef and dairy cattle operations that have been impacted and the red dots indicating infected sheep and goat farms as of September 9, 2024. The number of operations impacted is nearly double what it was one month earlier.
In Germany, milk production was down well over 1% in August, and it’s expected that September output will be down even more. Given that this disease is spread by warm weather-loving insects, the bluetongue outbreak should subside with colder weather in the late fall and winter. However, it could reappear next summer.
Additional disease impact zones can be seen here for the Netherlands and here for Belgium.
Impact on near-term milk markets
The positive movement in milk prices both in Europe and the U.S. has been driven largely due to tighter milk and product supplies rather than stronger dairy demand. Milk supplies have gotten tight among the big three dairy product exporters: New Zealand, the European Union, and the U.S. Until bluetongue gets held at bay, expect lower milk output from some of Europe’s leading dairy countries.
