The U.S. is projected to sell over 1 billion pounds of cheese to international customers this year. Through August, we have exported 766 million pounds of cheese. For the remaining months of the year, the U.S. only needs to average 58.5 million pounds of cheese exports each month to reach the 1 billion pound mark. For reference, monthly cheese exports have averaged 96 million pounds so far in 2024.

Mexico is the top purchaser of U.S. cheese. Our neighbors to the south have bought 35.5% more cheese this year compared to 2023. Sales now total 282 million pounds year-to-date.

Central America and the Caribbean have also been solid customers, purchasing 118 million pounds of cheese. That region is followed by South Korea at 89 million pounds and Japan at 70 million pounds of year-to-date U.S. cheese imports. Combined, those three regions have purchased 277 million pounds of U.S. cheese, just shy of the 282 million pounds Mexico has purchased alone.

Cheese prices are the name of the game

Earlier this year, U.S. cheese was priced competitively compared to other strong dairy exporting regions around the world, such as New Zealand and the European Union. The CME weekly average cash Cheddar block price hovered between $1.40 and $1.70 per pound in the first quarter. This encouraged cheese bookings to move higher and set records in March, May, and April, respectively, as the top three months of U.S. cheese exports.

Cheddar block prices then experienced an upward swing from April to May and held steady throughout the summer near $1.90 per pound. August and September saw another climb, with prices reaching nearly a $2.30 per pound at the peak, but they have returned to $1.90 per pound since.

According to the CME, weekly average cash prices for Cheddar barrels have experienced more volatility but followed a similar pattern to block prices this year. Overall, cheese prices help set the tone for how much cheese will leave the U.S. border.

Production remains strong to meet demands

To be able to consistently deliver this kind of cheese volume, the U.S. has worked to keep cheese vats full. Cheese production grew 1.7% year-over-year in August to 1.2 billion pounds. Even with August milk production being down 0.1%, butterfat and protein component production grew 2.1% compared to a year ago. This means that as component production grows, so can the manufacturing output of dairy products like cheese and butter, despite the decline in milk volume.

This is good news for domestic and foreign buyers as there is ample production of U.S. cheese to meet consumer demands.