University of Florida’s Albert De Vries, a professor of dairy management and economics, broke down the calculus, starting with the most crucial factor — opportunity cost. Waiting in the hopes that semen from the bull you’ve had your eye on will be cheaper means you’re passing on today’s opportunity to improve your herd. De Vries pointed out that genetic improvement is escalating thanks to genomic testing, noting that since 2012, the annual predicted transmitting ability (PTA) of Net Merit dollars economic selection index (NM$) has accelerated at a much faster pace than before. Using USDA/CDCB’s newly updated NM$, which establishes breed bases on multiple traits covering production, health, composite measurements, conception rates, producers can capture the expected profitability of a cow’s lifetime.
While semen prices typically do fall after a bull has spent a few seasons on the list, De Vries pointed out that the price difference would need to be slashed nearly in half for it to make up the gains farmers might see by moving sooner rather than later. Waiting until the next bull list changes pricing means giving up a head start for the herd. And semen costs, like many dairy farm expenses, represent more than just the upfront expense. They’re an investment in the herd’s future production and profitability. Taking the long view and paying more in the moment for that top-ranking sire may be the better move, De Vries noted. Waiting could take a toll on overall herd genetics and profitability, especially if semen prices aren’t likely to drop precipitously after a sire loses its top ranking. Read De Vries’ Dairy Update article here.
