USDA economists projected nearly a 5,000-pound gain in milk per cow over the next decade in the publication USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024. That would mean the average U.S. cow would be producing 27,060 pounds of milk or 3,150 gallons each year. If that number sounds far-fetched, then one must recall the fact that in 2004, the nation's dairy herd averaged 18,957 pounds of milk. That yielded a 3,328-pound gain - 945 gallons - over the past 10 years.
What are some other projections for the U.S. dairy sector?
Our nation's milk production is expected to climb from 2014's 206.2 billion pounds to 249.4 billion pounds in 2024. (As a comparison, milk production rose 35.4 million pounds from 2004's 170.8 billion.)
The nation's dairy cow herd will remain stable. This past year, there were 9.255 million cows. USDA projects cow numbers could slowly climb to 9.375 million by 2019 and then drift downward to 9.215 million in 2024. That means most of the growth in milk production will be due to higher yields per cow. (As a comparison, the nation's dairy herd numbered 9 million head in 2004.)
From an export standpoint, we could grow from 2014's 38.3 billion pounds to 50.9 billion pounds. On a dollar basis, values could be roughly $9 billion in 2024, which would represent steady growth from this past year's record $7.4 billion.
A brief mention about beef consumption . . . per capita beef consumption in the U.S. will continue to drift downward through 2017, project USDA economists. If this would take place, it would be due to tight supplies and high prices. Once beef supplies come into balance, consumption could begin to rise. However, the drop-off in consumption could be so dramatic that beef and pork consumption would nearly parallel one another. That would have been unheard of in our grandparents' generation. Meanwhile, American's love for chicken would continue to swell.
February 16, 2015
