Heifer buyers today will leave the sale barn with a dent in their pocketbooks. On the other hand, farmers who are selling their heifers are leaving with smiles on their faces and nice checks in their pockets. Heifer prices over the past few years have been steadily on the rise and continue to remain high. In a recent Iowa State University Extension “Raising Your Dairy Best Heifer” webinar, dairy specialist Fred Hall gave food for thought on the dairy heifer replacement market.
The cost of dairy heifers is determined by a few key factors: price of milk, heifer availability, and the producer’s ability to rebuild and expand their herd. An important investment in the future, heifers are the gateway to incorporating improved genetics within the existing herd. “The heifer market is more than just a benchmark. It’s a management factor in raising, selling, and buying replacements,” declared Hall.
To kick-off 2024, the number of dairy cows in the U.S. has been the lowest it’s been in nearly four years. With crossbreeding gaining popularity and lower cow numbers, the population of dairy heifers in the U.S. in 2024 is the lowest it’s been in two decades. The number of heifers expected to calve per 100 cows is also on the decline, making the heifer market tight. Overall milk production with the U.S has been on the downturn. With a limited number of replacements, it will be difficult for milk production to rise in the near future.
This shortage of heifers has raised some eyebrows in terms of availability and cost. The price of dairy heifers has skyrocketed nearly 40% from the previous year, said the dairy specialist. Rearing input costs have risen, making farmers more apt to reduce the number of replacements they raise and breed extra heifers to beef bulls. The beef industry is seeing a shortage due to drought, making the price of crossbreds the highest it’s been in years. This has led farmers to keep cows that would normally be on the cull list, said Hall.
Due to the cyclical nature of replacing and culling cattle, it is anticipated that it will be a few years before farmers are going to see any change within the heifer market. Focusing on the short- and long-term goals for your herd was advised. “Dairy heifer inventories have declined for six straight years, resulting in a heifer market that is stretched very thin,” cited the dairy specialist. Hall recommended being more diligent on heifer culling decisions.
