It’s just as important to not miss the forest for the trees as it is to not view milk production as the sole baseline for cow productivity. To that end, efficiency in producing more solids per pound of milk matters more than milk volume.
The trend of rising solids has doubled down as U.S. milk production on a liquid basis has been down 14 straight months through August 2024 (although USDA just revised August milk up slightly in its last report). At the same time, milk component production has grown in 12 of those 14 months, up 2.03% in August, as detailed in a new report by CoBank, “Why milk components matter more than milk production.”
History started changing in 2011
Percent change in milk, butterfat, and protein production per cow was nearly identical from 2001 to 2010. The annual growth rate for each of those factors hovered between 1.4% and 1.6%. However, in 2011, total milk per cow decoupled from components and showed slower growth. In fact, 2015 was the last time the three metrics – milk, butterfat, and protein – yielded a similar annual growth rate.
From 2016 to 2023, milk production netted a 0.9% average annual growth rate, while protein grew 1.5%, and butterfat climbed 2.2%. Certainly, component pricing factors and milk check incentives led the change.
Many small changes can have a big impact
Dairy farmers have improved cow productivity by refining rations, enhancing ration ingredients, improving genetic selection and genomics, stepping up forage quality, and providing better cow comfort. Also, genetic improvement within breed – not changing breed composition – has had a greater impact on components. According to sales data from the National Association of Animal Breeders (NAAB), from 2000 to 2023, Holstein semen sales dropped from 92.6% to 82.3% and Jersey semen sales grew from 5.8% to 14.2%. That means the overall U.S. dairy cow herd has not shifted breed composition too dramatically over the past 23 years to yield the more recent higher component production.
In 2023, dairy cow productivity as measured by butterfat and protein did slow somewhat. The lack of heifer replacements has stunted dairy cow productivity as culling has been down every week since September 2023. This has left lower-tier cows in some herds, which can bring down strong production averages.
Additionally, as replacement prices gain upward momentum in markets with $3,000-per head values at multiple auctions across the country, this trend isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon. New replacement heifers bring in the next generation of improved genetics, which can further accelerate milk component production.
