When the U.S. hay supply is in good shape, prices usually fall, and that was certainly the case in 2024. During the November Hoard’s Dairyman webinar, Mike Rankin shared that May hay stocks were up 47% from a year earlier. That was the first May 1 increase in hay stocks in several years, bringing the inventory up to 2020 levels. USDA projects that alfalfa hay stocks will be up 8% and grass hay up 6%, but final numbers won’t be released until January.

“There is a lot more forage out there than has been in the previous few years,” noted Rankin, senior editor for Hay & Forage Grower.

The current hay price backs up that statement. Just two years ago, the average alfalfa hay price for September was $277 a ton. This year, it was more than $100 less, at $172 a ton.

High quality hay, which typically costs more, averaged $227 per ton, and it was less than that in some regions. In the West in particular, prices have come down significantly, Rankin shared. In some markets, Supreme and Premium quality alfalfa was selling for less than $200 per ton. “A couple of years ago, we would have never thought we would see that price again,” he said.

Exports have an impact on hay prices out West, and although alfalfa hay exports through September were up compared to 2023, they remained far below 2021 and 2022 levels. China is our largest customer of alfalfa hay, and exports of alfalfa to that country are still sluggish, Rankin noted.

Where will hay prices go in 2025? Rankin shared several factors that could influence inventory and price in the year ahead.

• Water availability in the West
• Farmers’ ability to build hay stocks
• Growth in the national dairy and beef cattle herds
• Commodity feed prices
• Milk and beef prices
• Interest rates
• Exports
• Weather — perhaps the biggest factor of all

Extreme dry and wet weather conditions have become the norm, Rankin said. “We have to prepare for either scenario,” he stated. In 2024, these extreme conditions occurred in many of the same areas, and hayfields paid the price for a wet spring and then dry conditions later in the growing season.

“This won’t be a year to skimp on forage testing, given the wide variation of forage quality between cuttings and sometimes within cuttings,” Rankin advised.

He also highlighted the importance of monitoring forage inventory. “Risk management involves both price and feed inventory protection. There is no futures market for forage crops, so you must compensate for that by having inventory,” Rankin said.

To learn more, watch the November Hoard’s Dairyman webinar, “A feed and forage outlook for the year ahead.” This webinar was sponsored by QLF.