The U.S. has never exported more than 1 billion pounds of cheese in one year. That feat was accomplished in November as year-to-date U.S. cheese exports reached 1.028 billion pounds, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council.
Mexico continues to be the leading customer, purchasing 392 million pounds — 38% of all U.S. cheese exports. Mexico’s interest in U.S. cheese continues to grow as the country stepped up purchases by 32% through November compared to the prior year. Additionally, November was the second-highest monthly cheese volume purchase by Mexico, at 40.2 million pounds compared to the record of 40.4 million pounds set in May 2024.
Cheese prices were favorable
The average price for 40-pound blocks of Cheddar cheese in 2024 was $1.82 per pound, with a low of $1.52 in April 2024 and a high of $2.20 in September 2024. This reasonably priced cheese was lower than the top two dairy exporting regions, the European Union and New Zealand, helping support more cheese leaving U.S. borders.
Even the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed Cheddar cheese prices coming down. In December 2024, Cheddar cheese averaged $5.61 per pound, down 7.6% from its peak of $6.08 in September 2022. American cheese, however, is steadily rising with a peak of $5.06 per pound in October 2024 that came down slightly to $4.98 in December 2024. As “All Food” on the CPI continues to move upward, dairy product prices do not influence it as heavily as eggs or beef in recent months since those prices have skyrocketed due to supply constraints.
Production help fulfill demand
As butterfat and protein levels in milk continue to grow, more cheese production from every 100 pounds of milk is possible, thus fulfilling domestic and international demand. That growth in milk components is especially important considering the $4 billion in new cheese plants coming online through 2027. New plants in Kansas and Texas are already taking milk to make cheese. Other cheese plants are under construction in the Upper Midwest, the East Coast, and the West Coast.
It is likely the U.S. will produce more cheese in 2024 than it did in 2023. Year-to-date data from the USDA-Economic Research Service shows 13.05 billion pounds of cheese was produced through November. This leaves 1.16 billion pounds left to match the cheese output in 2023. Production statistics in February and November 2024 were the only months that were below the 1.16-billion-pound level, and it wasn’t by much, giving a positive outlook for December cheese production.
Dairy remains a bright spot in a variety of facets for U.S. agriculture. There is opportunity in production, processing, and consumer demand when it comes to manufactured dairy products like cheese and butter. When looking at milkfat allocation as a percent of the total milk supply, cheese is the largest portion at 42.2%, and that value climbs to 60.2% when including butter. Nearly two-thirds of the milk supply goes into making these two dairy products, which continue to be in high demand among consumers at home and abroad.
