On the 2024 campaign trail, President Donald Trump vowed to take firm action to restrict lawful and unlawful immigration into the U.S., including a pledge for mass deportations. Allies of Trump have reported to be preparing more than 100 executive orders on policies including border security and deportation.
With looming unknowns, actions to foster relations with Mexico have been front and center. National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) Executive Vice President Jaime Castaneda spent December 3 to 6, 2024, in Mexico City, meeting with the U.S.-Mexico Working Group and strengthening ties with local Mexican dairy producers and industry organizations.
Castaneda met with dairy companies, farmer organizations, and government officials to encourage Mexico to engage with the new U.S. administration to find solutions to issues of common concern, such as immigration and trade, rather than escalate tensions. He emphasized that the best means for Mexico to address the legitimate concerns raised by the incoming Trump administration is to work collaboratively.
An August 2015 NMPF study found immigrant labor accounts for 51% of all dairy labor, and dairies that employ immigrant labor produce 79% of the U.S. milk supply. If the U.S. dairy industry lost its foreign-born workforce, it would nearly double retail milk prices and cost the total U.S. economy more than $32 billion. As we approach 10 years since this study, these statistics would be conservative under a 2025 lens.
The continued shortage of domestic workers across agriculture is magnified on dairies as they have a year-round need versus using seasonal labor. The most common guestworker program, the H-2A visa, remains seasonal and unavailable to the dairy industry. This not only impacts on-farm milk harvest labor, but also milk processing facilities. According to a McKinsey survey of International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) member executives, 64% of dairy company CEOs cite labor shortages among their top three concerns.
While the uncertainties are front and center, there remains a question of reality and feasibility of mass deportations under the Trump administration. According to a January 2022 Homeland Security estimate, 11 million people are in the U.S. illegally. The Associated Press reports that in Trump’s first term, deportations were never higher than 350,000 per year. Former President Barack Obama carried out 432,000 deportations in 2013, the highest annual total since records were kept. There is a fiscal, political, and legal valley that lies between mass deportation and Trump campaign promises.
As the labor realities continue to face the dairy industry, Castaneda stated, “U.S. dairy farmers have long endured labor shortages, which they’ve responded to by offering some of the highest wages and benefits among agricultural workers. We have always encouraged farmers to only employ dairy workers with proper documentation, and we know they make every effort to do that. When workforce disruptions do occur, we’ve seen dairy farms work together to ensure that farms have sufficient labor to continue providing nutritious, wholesome milk for consumers.”
