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As printed in our July 2009 issue...

SHORT- AND LONG-TERM approaches to solving milk supply/demand imbalance being considered by National Milk Strategic Planning group.

PLENTY OF MILK as May output 0.2 percent above a year ago in the 23 states. Milk per cow in those states was up 0.5 percent, enough to offset a 25,000-head or 0.3 percent drop in cow numbers. Nationally, cow numbers (9.27 million) were down 11,000 from April; down 43,000 from year ago.

AMONG TOP STATES, only Wisconsin was up in milk (+1.9 percent). California was down 1.9 percent; New York, -0.8; Idaho, -1.4; Pennsylvania, -0.8.

BLEAK PICTURE PAINTED by forecasters and futures. At closing, July through December Class III futures averaged only $11.96. USDA projects Class III price to average around $10.80 this year, rise to $14.80 next.

CHEESE STOCKS UP 9 percent over year ago to 957 million pounds. Highest since August 1985. American cheese stocks (608 million pounds) up 7 percent from last year and highest in five years. Butter supply down.

IMMIGRANT LABOR can be found on about half (47 percent) of U.S. dairies, according to a National Milk and Texas A & M survey. Responding farms averaged 300 cows and four full-time and 1.6 part-time employees.

ESTIMATED MILC PAYMENTS: May, $1.54; June, $1.79; July, $1.84; August, $1.64; September, $1.54; and October, $1.24 (average of three sources.)

BRIEFLY: Corn crop rated 70 percent “good” or “excellent” compared to 59 percent at the same time last year. Independent industry think tank (co-op, processor, and university economists and marketing specialists) studying ways to reduce volatility of milk prices. Request to boost California Class I prices by $1 per cwt. rejected by state ag department. May Class III price price was $9.84, down 84 cents from April. July Class I mover is $10.26, up 18 cents from June. Fluid milk sales up 1.4 percent over last year during February through April. Bovine TB confirmed on west Texas dairy, now quarantined. Plus, TB quarantines 32 Nebraska herds. Non-performing loans grew almost $500 million to $3 billion in Farm Credit System during first quarter. Cash receipts from milk sales totaled $34.77 million during 2008. Hog industry considers voluntary “producer retirement plan” patterned after CWT. Corn price could be around $4.30 a bushel this crop year, says USDA.