by Corey Geiger, Managing Editor
When it comes to the global dairy industry, the International Farm Comparison Network or IFCN would be among the leaders for having its pulse on dairy production, consumption and economic patterns. At their 11th gathering last week, 123 dairy specialists representing 83 global organizations gathered to hear forecasts over the next decade from the IFCN team. Among the projections - demand for milk would grow by 29 percent through 2023. That's 20 million tons of milk each year.
That projection isn't easy to calculate. The global dairy industry is quite diverse. It includes: low-cost grazing operators in New Zealand, Ireland and Argentina; high technology and milk production per cow countries like the U.S., Canada and those throughout Europe; and homestead dairy operations which just milk a few cows in many developing regions.
That is where IFCN enters the equation. The brainchild of Torsten Hemme, who once studied at Texas A&M, the German economist now heads a team of 10 researchers in Kiel, Germany that work with partners across the globe to gain a better understanding of milk production worldwide.
In addition to global milk demand projections, here are some other projections that Hemme and his team shared with those attending the recent IFCN Supporter Conference in Oxford, England:
- In order to meet global demand, milk production will surpass 1,000 million metric tons of milk by 2023 (2012: 780 million).
- Global dairy trade will reach 8 to 10 percent of world production. This means a higher share of milk demand growth will be met via imports and not as much from local milk production.
- China will remain the largest dairy product importer moving from 2012's 5.8 million metric tons to 16 million over the next decade. China will be followed by Russian, Brazil and India as the top importing nations.
- Worldwide, dairy farm numbers reached their peak in 2012 and will decline from this point forward.
(c) Hoard's Dairyman Intel 2013
September 23, 2013