When USDA reports the final month of milk production in late January, New York should retake third place among all states for total milk production. It was a position that the Empire State held firmly behind California and Wisconsin for nearly four decades - from 1972 to 2009 to be exact. Then, in 2010, Idaho surpassed New York and held down the third spot through last year.
For 2013, we project New York will produce 13.512 billion pounds, while Idaho will ship 13.470 billion pounds to processing plants. All told, Idaho will be down roughly 0.7 percent when compared to the prior year. Meanwhile, New York appears headed for 2.2 to 2.4 percent growth in 2013.
Drilling deeper into the numbers . . . So far this year, Idaho's milk output (when compared to the prior year) was down for 7 of the 11 months. Only from March to June was milk above last year's threshold and those totals were up under 0.5 percent. In New York, milk flow has been up every month when adjusting for leap year. Counting 2013, New York has quietly stacked four consecutive growth years: 2012, 2.8 percent; 2011, 0.9 percent; and 2010, 2.3 percent.
Idaho's ascent to third place was rather swift, as many California dairy family's relocated to the region. In 1990, with 2.95 billion pounds, Idaho ranked 12 among all states. By 2000, the state known for potatoes had more than doubled milk flow to move into the sixth position at 7.2 billion pounds. Then, in 2010, with 12.8 billion pounds, it passed New York. When that took place, most analysts thought Idaho would never look back.
However, a host of factors chipped away at profitability and producers' desire to expand milk production in Idaho. High grain and forage prices, some of the lowest mailbox prices in the nation along with some other factors collided to suppress Idaho's milk production for the first time in many decades.
Looking at some historical data . . . Third place represents Idaho's highest rank in total milk output. At one time, New York led the nation in milk production. But, by the early 1900s, Wisconsin had passed it as the nation's top milk state. From that time forth, New York generally held second place, at times flipping back and forth with Minnesota until 1972 when California sprinted past it. In 1993, California moved ahead of Wisconsin.
