Despite dairy’s current dismal pay prices, the long-term future looks bright.

“Global per capita dairy product consumption will grow from 42 to 297 pounds of milk equivalent per person,” projected Katrin Reincke and Lukasz Wyrzkowsi, who are members of the IFCN Dairy Research Network. “The future demand will be mainly driven by population growth and higher per capita consumption, as an additional 16 percent (1.2 billion people) of potential customers will demand dairy products.”

More dairy trade
“Through 2030, the net trade is expected to expand by 73 percent, up to 95 million tons of energy-corrected milk,” stated the IFCN Dairy Research Network specialists based in Kiel, Germany. “This entails opportunities for export countries, which need to provide dairy products to the milk deficit countries.”

This also represents an important development for U.S. dairy producers.

“The ‘IFCN Long-term Dairy Outlook’ suggests a constant growth rate in total U.S. milk consumption through 2030,” added Reincke and Wyrzkowski, “with a slight gain in the per capita consumption from 643 pounds in 2017 to 661 pounds of milk equivalent per capita in 2030.”

Growth already occurring
Globally, dairy exports expanded 2.9 percent last year, reported the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Butter shipments jumped 7.5 percent, while cheese inched up 0.8 percent. Skim milk powder surged 8.6 percent, and whole milk powder climbed 1.7 percent.

Domestic sales also expanded last year.

U.S. consumers purchased 2.1 percent more butter in 2018 when compared to one year earlier. Cheese grew at an even stronger rate of 2.3 percent.

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(c) Hoard's Dairyman Intel 2019
April 1, 2019
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