For decades, fluid milk sales have been in a tailspin. Initially, that downturn was only noticeable in annual per capita consumption patterns. As that was taking place, rapid growth in the U.S. population subsequently masked the situation as total fluid sales on a volume basis continued to expand.
By 2009, population growth could neither keep up with nor prop up total beverage milk sales, as per capita consumption continued lower to eventually stall out. That was the moment when total U.S. fluid milk sales peaked at 55.4 billion pounds. Since 2009, fluid milk sales have been down 14 straight years and settled at 42.8 billion pounds in 2023.
That figure is the lowest sales number for the category dating back to 1954, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service. During that era, the U.S. had about 160 million people. Now the population has grown to approximately 337 million people, which heavily impacts per capita consumption calculations.
The whole milk boomerang
For many of the years since 1954, whole milk hemorrhaged the greatest share of sales as the war on saturated fats caused consumers to turn away from the full fat option. Whole milk sales stood above 40 billion pounds from 1956 to 1972. But the category slid under 30 billion pounds by 1982 and dropped below 20 billion pounds in 1993. It’s never been above that figure again. During this time, cold breakfast cereal’s lost sales have cost fluid milk dearly as the two are highly linked foods.
In a reversal of fortunes, however, whole milk has become a bright spot in the category. That’s largely because science continues to build knowledge that saturated fats like those found in whole milk and other dairy products are actually beneficial in human diets. As more consumers have become aware of those benefits, whole milk sales have slowly mounted a comeback in the extremely competitive beverage category.
From 2014 to 2023, whole milk experienced growth every year except for 2021. During that time, sales moved from 13.8 billion pounds in 2014 to 16.3 billion pounds in 2023. Again, that took place in the headwinds of an overall decline in the beverage milk category that saw total milk sales fall from 50.4 billion pounds to 42.8 billion pounds. Today, it’s increasingly apparent that whole milk has an opportunity to take back more market share in the beverage category.
